Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.418365 1.608014 1.809397 2.038716 2.292146 2.563192 2.874535
2025-01-05 1.110886 1.360998 1.643732 1.985352 2.385183 2.836515 3.382621
2025-01-12 0.901433 1.189449 1.534854 1.975735 2.519279 3.162984 3.978054
2025-01-19 0.727128 1.033595 1.423297 1.947944 2.627609 3.469474 4.581002
2025-01-26 0.619321 0.945506 1.383946 2.004182 2.844844 3.928955 5.414310
2025-02-02 0.525119 0.861094 1.338172 2.046321 3.048479 4.390766 6.294125
2025-02-09 0.439606 0.775045 1.278264 2.061392 3.216905 4.821526 7.171661
2025-02-16 0.370833 0.702585 1.227825 2.083336 3.396632 5.283033 8.129724
2025-02-23 0.300463 0.614397 1.140253 2.037844 3.472067 5.602855 8.914693
2025-03-02 0.236526 0.524279 1.035453 1.950833 3.473715 5.813370 9.556927
2025-03-09 0.197733 0.472326 0.987039 1.949321 3.608429 6.233152 10.539576
2025-03-16 0.162044 0.418481 0.926468 1.918460 3.690785 6.576756 11.429275
2025-03-23 0.141362 0.393043 0.917987 1.984921 3.953607 7.243315 12.896348
2025-03-30 0.112213 0.341030 0.848401 1.928882 3.997930 7.558599 13.829253
2025-04-06 0.092051 0.304785 0.804648 1.916398 4.119040 8.012161 15.021221
2025-04-13 0.074375 0.269426 0.755979 1.886853 4.204964 8.411811 16.151380
2025-04-20 0.064650 0.253051 0.747452 1.939568 4.452702 9.112766 17.837660
2025-04-27 0.055624 0.235812 0.733621 1.978895 4.677906 9.789447 19.524313
2025-05-04 0.046828 0.216123 0.709724 1.992198 4.851577 10.383703 21.101687
2025-05-11 0.039700 0.199367 0.690066 2.012424 5.041215 11.020435 22.792368
2025-05-18 0.031673 0.175682 0.646036 1.967383 5.086958 11.385410 24.008687
2025-05-25 0.024158 0.149986 0.589691 1.882261 5.035109 11.555222 24.871579
2025-06-01 0.019988 0.136496 0.567035 1.880255 5.168602 12.100100 26.469603